Whoops! Tiger's out of Accenture

So, I'll be rolling BACK those Accenture estimates.

He's likely to return to the Doral in 2 weeks.

Tiger Woods Wins Opening Round

This should ease any anxieties you may have about the higher numbers promised for this weekend.

SNL Changes THIS Sunday...

Instead of a two hour SNL Special airing on Sunday, Universal has decided to push DVD sales by substituting selections from two SNL videos available for retail sale: Best of Tracy Morgan and Best of Will Farrell.

So, when you and your traffic department are cursing NBC yet again, think about those DVD royalties NBCU hopes to make.

Tiger Returns to NBC Sports

Feb 28 and March 1, the Accenture Match Play will mark the return of Tiger Woods after a long recovery from knee surgery. NBC affiliates should be VERY happy, as Tiger draws young men and women unlike any other golfer.

Now, how do I estimate the return audience for Tiger? Simple. I did my research, and found there was a single PAV from years ago which best duplicated this story. It's not even from NBC.. but my clients can find out what it is by looking at the Logic Flow or Rationale of the two inventory lines.

Some of my clients have noted I've "capped" select, discrete demographics in some heavily anticipated specials and sports; the building blocks Nielsen uses to generate "money" demos. This happens when weighting and indexing takes demographic shares to unreasonable levels (over 100.) If you see one or two demo segments indexed down individually, this is the reason.

The Devil Is In The Details

The two hour SNL special on 3/8 has been split into two separate hours, each with their own inventory line.

Biggest Loser finale has been extended to THREE hours.

Second Hour of Wednesday Prime from 4/15 on has been changed from TBA to....
well, if you're a RDRx client, all you have to do is look in Prime. :)

Goof-proof Avails?

Did you know that hiatus dates in ClearView/MediaOffice inventory help you from selling programming that won't air? Because NBC is "nothing but change," it's tough for AEs to know if a given NBC prime program will air in its normal time period in any given future week.

RDRx inventories have been customized to reflect these sporadic hiatus dates. Within Package, you'll find non-airing weeks have been greyed-out, so you can't place spots by mistake. In the event *I've*made a mistake and you're certain the program will air, simply right-click the greyed-out box and select "UnHiatus Program For This Week."

All set for Monday and Tuesday?

Presidential news conference will jostle Monday prime, and Tuesday's SVU has been pulled in place of an OTO Dateline. All stations have had their Prime & Specials folders double-checked for run and hiatus dates through June; finales and encores have been adjusted to reflect increased or decreased interest.

There are now more than 50 different Primetime Specials airing on NBC before June. If you're an RDRx client, you have a list of them all, plus carefully documented audience estimates for all demos within your formerly-ClearView and now MediaOffice system.

Have a great weekend!

When Do You Think?

Yep, less than 48 hours after announcing "Who Do You Think You Are?" and moving Deal or No Deal to Wednesday, NBC rearranges the chairs. Now, Deal or No Deal replaces "Who Do You Think You Are?", and L&O:CI encores take the Wednesday slot.

When Do You Think Who Do You Think You Are Will Air? Heck.. it's anyone's guess.

Lots of Primetime & Finale Changes Announced by NBC

Our new president will be giving his first presidential news conference next Monday airing at 8pm ET, 7pm CT, 6pm MT and 5pm PT. NBC will update us soon on programming to run in the third hour of prime in Mountain and Pacific Time Zones.

Then, on Tuesday Feb 24th, Obama will speak to Congress live at 9E, 8C, 7M and 6P, and NBC will shorten Biggest Loser to 1 hour in all time zones.

More than 20 other NBC Prime and Specials changes have also been announced including changes to premiere dates of Chuck, 30 Rock and Saturday Night Live. And it wouldn't be spring without "Most Outrageous" and more "Deal or No Deal" filling TBA slots in May.

RDRx clients will see changes reflected in ClearView/MediaOffice inventory on Thursday. You do close and re-open daily, don't you? If you don't, you won't see any of these changes, so make it a daily habit.

Whoops! TBA back in place

Earlier this afternoon, I got news of a Wednesday night programming shift coming in April that turned out to be mistaken. In the course of the past two hours, the inventory line has come and gone from client servers.

While it would be easy to wait for second or third sources to confirm programming changes, my clients have always preferred to get word at first hint; before being caught off-guard with clients or co-workers. And mistakes are quickly corrected.. unless you re-opened ClearView after 5pm EST, you never would have known about the initial change or the reversal.

All is right with the world.. if TBA is "right."

Heroes Winter Premiere Encore... whew!

The Heroes episode airing this evening will be repeated this coming Saturday during the first hour of NBC Prime, replacing L&O:CI.

All RDRx Clients will find this change already made within their inventory and estimates.

Wish your station was a client? Drop me a note at paul (at) onedomain.com and we can make it happen.

Super Bowl Delivers 42.1 HH Rating

SUPER BOWL XLIII ON NBC DRAWS 42.1 OVERNIGHT RATING

"These numbers confirm the power and consistency of the Super Bowl as the top property in all of television." - NBC's Ebersol

TAMPA - Feb. 2, 2009 - Super Bowl XLIII, in which the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Arizona Cardinals 27-23 and described by John Madden as a "super Super Bowl" and Al Michaels as "a classic," earned a 42.1 overnight rating and a 65 share on NBC to put it on pace with past Super Bowls. In 18 of the last 20 years, the Super Bowl has delivered an overnight rating of 40.0 or higher.

"Every year, America stands still on Super Sunday and these numbers confirm the power and consistency of the Super Bowl as the top property in all of television," said Dick Ebersol, Chairman, NBC Universal Sports and Olympics. "Many people doubted this match-up, but it's the Super Bowl not the match-up, that draws an enormous audience.

"We are in a great place to be in relation to last year's historic and unimaginable game when an undefeated powerhouse was upset by an underdog from the country's largest media market."

Last year's game in which the New York Giants upset the New England Patriots in the game's final seconds, to end the Patriots historic undefeated season earned a 44.7/66, only six percent higher than last night's game.

Over the last 20 years, the average overnight rating for the Super Bowl is 42.5 with the high being 44.7 for Super Bowl XLII and the low a 39.4 for Super Bowl XXIV.

The rating peaked in the 10 p.m. ET half hour when nearly half of America's television homes watched (48.0/70). During the exciting fourth quarter viewers saw the Cardinals go ahead with just over 2 minutes left on a Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald 64-yard touchdown pass followed by QB Ben Roethlisberger driving the Steelers to the game-winning touchdown to Super Bowl XLIII MVP Santonio Holmes with 35 seconds to play.

LAST FOUR SUPER BOWL OVERNIGHT RATINGS:
Super Bowl XLIII 42.1/65
Super Bowl XLII 44.7/66
Super Bowl XLI 42.1/62
Super Bowl XL 42.2/62

TOP 25 MARKETS FOR SUPER BOWL XLIII:
1. Pittsburgh 53.6/79
2. Norfolk 52.6/72
3. Jacksonville 50.6/71
4. Buffalo 50.4/68
5. Richmond 49.3/67
6. Tampa 49.2/70
7. Ft. Myers 48.1/68
8. Cleveland 47.7/69
9. Phoenix 47.5/80
10. Indianapolis 47.4/65
11. Nashville 47.2/66
12. Washington D.C. 46.7/70
13. Columbus 46.5/67
14. Orlando 46.4/66
15. Memphis 46.3/63
16. Philadelphia 46.2/65
17. New Orleans 45.7/63
18. Knoxville 45.2/58
19. Baltimore 45.0/63
T20. Denver 44.7/76
T20. Las Vegas 44.7/68
T20. Greensboro 44.7/63
T23. Charlotte 44.6/63
T23. Greenville 44.6/60
25. St. Louis 44.5/69

NBC Finale Dates For Non-Clients

LOS ANGELES (thefutoncritic.com) -- NBC has ordered 12 additional episodes of its Friday newcomer "Howie Do It."

The extra half-hour installments will keep the series on the Peacock's schedule through April 24.

Meanwhile on the non-freshman front, network sources have confirmed the bulk of its production commitments for the rest of the 2008-09 season.

The number of episodes have been detailed for the following shows (season finale date in parenthesis): "Chuck" (22 episodes, April 13), "Heroes" (26 episodes, April 27), "Medium" (19 episodes, two hours on May 18), "The Biggest Loser: Couples" (19 episodes, May 12), "Law & Order: SVU" (22 episodes, May 19), "Life" (21 episodes, April 8), "Law & Order" (22 episodes, May 20), "My Name Is Earl" (26 half-hours, May 14), "The Office" (29 half-hours, one hour on May 14), "30 Rock" (22 episodes, May 7), "Friday Night Lights" (13 episodes, April 10) and "The Celebrity Apprentice" (11 episodes, May 17).

Note that "Life" had originally been set to film 22 installments, while "The Biggest Loser," which wrapped its sixth cycle after 13 weeks, will go for 19 this edition. And finally, "Medium" will fill out its 19-episode commitment with back-to-back installments starting at 9:00/8:00c on May 4, May 11 and May 18.

Note from pah: why do I say "for non-clients?" My clients had this information in ClearView as soon as 2 hours after finale dates were announced. This listing is for those without my service.

"Howie" Does Well Enough To Be Renewed

January 29, 2009 11:41 AM

NBC Renews ‘Howie Do It’

By Josef Adalian

"Howie Do It"? Apparently, pretty well.

NBC has given the thumbs up to 12 more episodes of the Howie Mandel hidden-camera comedy "Howie Do It," the network announced Thursday. The episodes are already in production.

Mr. Mandel's show premiered earlier this month and has increased NBC's low-rated Friday 8 p.m. hour by 64 percent in adults 18-49 vs. earlier this season.

"'Howie Do It' has proven to be a solid performer for NBC on Friday nights," said Paul Telegdy, executive vice president of alternative programming for NBC and Universal Media Studios.

NBC Prime/Specials/Finales Ready Everywhere

I forgot to post this last night... all my NBC clients now have more than 100 different inventory items in Prime and Specials, each with newly tweaked audience estimates and updated rationale.

Clients can find an updated NBC Prime/Specials/Finales avail in the Public Area of Saved Avails. Open it As Template to fiddle with the estimates before sending out, or just print it as is for quick reference.

Look for Olympic estimates in February.

Four Stations Updated Same-Day

I've finished four clients this evening, but will call it a night at 2:20am.

WRCB and Sunbelt stations are complete, and I'll finish the rest in the morning.

But wait.. there's MORE....

Most of the guesses I've made regarding replacement programming have been spot on.

One new program you've probably not heard of: Who Do You Think You Are? on Mondays in May.. one to appeal to Ancestry.com

THE ANSWERS LIE IN THE PAST.

From producer Lisa Kudrow comes a new series that is unlike anything on U.S. television. Based on the popular BBC documentary series, Who Do You Think You Are? takes viewers on an inspiring and personal journey into the past of America's best-known celebrities, sharing their emotion and surprise as they uncover stories of heroism, tragedy, love and betrayal that lie at the heart of their family story. At the same time, the series celebrates the making of our great nation and the people who traveled here in search of freedom and opportunity.

All these changes equal about 2 hours per client. It's gonna be a long night.

Finale Dates Announced..

I'm adding all of the dates into inventory now.

However, the announcement does not contain replacement programming, so a lot of time periods will be TBA in 2nd Quarter Prime until NBC discloses more.

Mix Wrestling & Downhill Skis

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/24/sports/othersports/24cross.html?8dpc

You'll notice several of these events on NBC's Winter Sports schedule, and it's worth noting the Olympic tie-in for 2010. Yep, hard to believe, but Winter Olympics are just 13 months away.

No Changes Since Monday...

A website you might enjoy.

Pandora.com is a great way to add music to your office/cubicle with your choice of musicians, songs, etc.

It's like Last.fm or Slacker.com, but without a lot of interruptions.